Part of my routine on a Thursday is to check the forecast and the the tides in the morning. Basicly, because sailing has so many variables, I like to gather as much information as possible before hand. This makes it easier on the water to weigh up the options. I use a mixture of windguru, xc weather and the atlantic pressure chart on the BBC to keep up to date.
The weather looks dominated by a fat high pressure slapped over the uk so any breeze is likely to be light until at least next week (bearing in mind most forecasts are only really accurate over 2 to 3 days). Today windguru has aout 3 knots sw for 7pm combined with high cloud cover and high tide at 11pm. With neglible thermal enhancement, I don't see it being more than a light sail. However, a bit of current against the breeze should make it feel a bit better than 3 kts.
Bearing this in mind I'm already considering the race. Here's how I see it, first beat is all about going right. Reasons as follows.
1/hopefully catch stronger current near the cliffs giving the effect of more pressure in the sail.
2/as the night goes on, the likelyhood is for the breeze to go right due to the forecast (west 3 kts at 10pm)
3/sail the rhumb line on the reaches and look for extra pressure on the run.
Having a plan always helps, if things are different to how I predict when I get out there then its always easier to change a plan than to make a new one! Here's mine. I'll probably try to win the starboard end and be first to tack off. I usually don't like early laylines but I think it would be worth trying to 2 tack it on this occasion. Other than that, I reckon some soothing music on the ipod on the way down and a softly softly approach on the tiller will help me stay quick today. Smooth baby.
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The first casulty in battle is always the plan! More breeze out to sea gave left the advantage after the first lap - rarely so with the wind roughly southwesterly but just proves the only goldern rule is that three are no goldern rules!
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