Westerly or north westerly?

Won't get a chance to to write anything tomorrow morning so I thought I'd get it in early. It looks like more of the same for sunday. The low pressure system centred over Ireland today should move off to the north sea and drag the current southerly breeze round to the north west by late tomorrow. Therfore, I'm guessing we'll have racing very similar to Thursday. Shifty breeze with significant variations in pressure.

Predicting my first beat is very tricky and has so far proved as futile as it should be! Instead, today I'll offer up my general theme for my first beat on days like Thursday and tomorow. Up the first beat, I will generally stay somewhere in the middle of the course area. If I think one side is favoured then I will try to stay to that side of the bulk of the boats to gain some 'leverage'. ie I think right will pay, I will stay to the right of the majority of the fleet. Where I end up on the course is then ditated by where the fleet chooses to go. So, if the fleet heads left I will probably end up just left of middle. If the fleet stays in the middle, I will go right of middle etc. This principle ensures that if I am correct, I will gain a small advantage but equally, if I'm wrong, I will only make a small loss and still be in contention. As the race moves on through the rounds, I try to build up a better picture of what works and will then get more confident of going my own way, seeking to make bigger gains. This is a 'safe' way to build a race. However, It doesn't always work like that! Sometimes, events at the start force you away from the group to gain clear air (which is paramount in anything other than 20knots), just remember the further you go, the more you'll be looking over your shoulder and worrying about tacking back!

There are times when you need a big gain to get back in the frame so I don't want to discourage people from taking risks and going for glory. After all, it is part of the fun. So, expect me to hit a corner on sunday! ha ha